The debate over the effectiveness of Baltimore’s Group Violence Reduction Strategy (GVRS), a key component of the city’s crime-fighting efforts, continues to intensify. The program, currently operating in about half of the city’s police districts, aims to provide services to individuals at the highest risk of involvement in gun violence.

Recent statistics released by the city reveal that approximately 7.5% of the 160 GVRS participants over the past two and a half years have reoffended. Among these cases, one participant is now charged with homicide, another with home invasion, three with using firearms in drug trafficking, and six with illegal firearm possession.

Mayor Brandon Scott staunchly defends the program, stating, “The residents of Baltimore should understand this program works and it’s why we are having a historic reduction in homicides in Baltimore, period.” The city has indeed seen a 30% reduction in homicides so far this year.

However, some analysts caution against attributing the decline solely to GVRS. Jeff Asher, an analyst who tracks homicides in major cities, suggests, “You could argue the homicide decline would’ve been bigger without the program.” He emphasizes that it’s premature to credit any specific program for the decline, noting, “Criminologists aren’t sure why murders fell in the 90’s and why they rose in 2020, so I think putting confidence in an explanation is a little premature at this point.”