Emerson Poll: Trump’s Support Same After Verdict

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A new Emerson College Polling survey shows that former President Donald Trump’s nationwide support has remained steady after his felony convictions in New York City, but his lead over President Joe Biden shrunk by two points, leaving the two in a statistical tie in their race for the White House.

The poll, released Thursday, shows Trump’s support remaining at 46%, the same as it has been since April, to 45% for Biden. However, the last poll had Trump at 46% to 43% for Biden.

Another 9% of the voters said they remain undecided, and those who have not yet decided are split evenly between backing Biden and Trump, with 50% for each candidate.

The latest poll was conducted on June 4-5 and included 1,000 registered voters. It carried a credibility interval, said to be similar to a margin of error, of 3 percentage points.

The poll found that 40% said Trump’s criminal convictions will not make an impact on how they vote in November, but 33% said it made them less likely to support him and 27% said the verdict makes it more likely they’ll pick Trump.

“A majority of Democrats say it makes them less likely to support Trump (51%) and a majority of Republicans (55%) say it makes them more likely to support Trump,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling commented. “A plurality of independents say it makes no impact (41%), while 38% are less likely to vote for Trump and 21% more likely.”

Meanwhile, a plurality of voters, at 40%, said they think Trump should be sent to prison after his convictions, while 25% said he should pay a fine, and 15% said he should be on probation.

“Opinion on Trump’s sentence varies by party: 67% of Democrats think Trump should serve prison time, while 46% of Republicans think he should pay a fine; 42% of independents think he should serve prison time, 22% a fine, and 14% probation,” Kimball noted.

Third-party candidates had an impact on the poll. With them included, Trump’s support dropped from 46% to 44%, and Biden’s went from 45% to 38%.

The poll showed 6% said they back Robert F. Kennedy Jr., while 1% supported Cornel West and Jill Stein respectively. Nine percent said they are undecided.

Meanwhile, Biden’s ratings remained low, with the poll showing him with a 37% job approval rating and a disapproval rating of 53%.

Most voters, at 55%, said they disapproved of Biden’s handling on the nation’s immigration policy, but 25% said they approved.

Another 38% said they approve of the president’s order banning migrants from seeking asylum at the border once the average number of daily encounters hits 2,500. Another 39% disapproved, and 23% were unsure.

Among issues most important for voters, 42% said the economy; 15% said immigration; 12% said threats to democracy; 7% said housing affordability; 6% said crime; 5% said abortion access and healthcare each; and 4% said education.

Voters were also asked about the Hunter Biden gun trial, with 64% saying it will not have an impact on their vote. However, 12% said the trial makes them more likely to support the president and 24% said it makes them less likely to vote for him.

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