Sabato’s Crystal Ball Moves 6 Predictions to Favor GOP

(AP)

Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, has changed his prediction on six electoral races to favor Republicans.

Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio are now rated as “safe Republican” states after being previously rated as “likely Republican,” while Maine’s 2nd congressional district changed from “leans Republican” to “likely Republican.”

The first three states “would only be gettable for Democrats in a perfectly optimal situation in a presidential race, and even if Democrats hold the White House, it doesn’t seem like an optimal situation, politically, is forthcoming for them,” the center wrote on its website announcing the changes.

Georgia has moved from a toss-up to “leans Republican,” while Pennsylvania has changed to a toss-up from “leans Democratic.”

On the presidential race between Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump, Sabato’s Crystal Ball says Republicans are now a “bit closer” to the “magic number of 270.”

It takes 270 electoral votes to elect the president.

“But neither side is at or over 270,” it added.

“If Republicans do in fact win all of the electoral votes at least leaning to them in our ratings, 251, the 19 electoral votes in Pennsylvania would put them at exactly 270,” Taylor Budowich, the CEO of a pro-Trump Super PAC, recently wrote in a strategy memo (as reported by CNN and other media outlets) and that winning Pennsylvania “is the ball game.”

“That’s not an outlandish argument — in fact, we’d probably go a little further: If Trump wins any of Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin, he very likely will win the election.”