Emerson Poll: Trump Keeps Lead in Swing States

(Dreamstime)

Former President Donald Trump continues to lead President Joe Biden in key swing states, according to a new poll from Emerson College Polling/The Hill.

In Arizona, Trump leads Biden, 47% to 43%. In 2020 in Arizona, Biden defeated Trump 49.36% to 49.06%.
In Georgia, Trump leads Biden, 45% to 41%. In 2020 in Georgia, Biden defeated Trump 49.47% to 49.24%.
In Wisconsin, Trump leads Biden, 47% to 44%. In 2020 in Wisconsin, Biden defeated Trump 49.45% to 48.82%.
In Nevada, Trump leads Biden, 46% to 43%. In 2020 in Nevada, Biden defeated Trump 50.06% to 47.67%.
In Pennsylvania, Trump leads Biden, 47% to 45%. In 2020 in Pennsylvania, Biden defeated Trump 49.85% to 48.69%.
In Michigan, Trump leads Biden, 46% to 45%. In 2020 in Michigan, Biden defeated Trump 50.62% to 47.84%.
In Minnesota, Trump and Biden are tied, 45% to 45%. In 2020 in Minnesota, Biden defeated Trump 52.40% to 45.28%. Minnesota has not voted for a Republican for president since 1972.

This was the first poll Emerson conducted since Trump’s conviction in a New York criminal trial.

“In our first polling in several key swing states since Trump’s conviction last month, there has been little movement, with support for both Trump and Biden staying largely consistent since November,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Notably, results fall within the poll’s margin of error.”

While Trump still leads Biden among independents in all seven states surveyed, his support among independents dropped five points in Arizona, three points in Michigan, and eight points in Pennsylvania since the last Emerson poll in April. Biden lost support among independents by six points in Georgia and five points in Nevada, Emerson said.

The polls surveyed 1,000 registered voters in each state June 13-18 and had a credibility interval of 3 percentage points in 19 of 20 cases in each state.