Mont. Senate Race Shifts from ‘Toss Up’ to ‘Lean Republican’

In a worrisome sign for Democrats, The Cook Political Report moved Montana’s Senate race from “toss up” to “lean Republican” on Thursday, increasing the likelihood that the GOP will retake control of the upper chamber on Nov. 5.

Incumbent Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., is locked in a tight reelection battle with Republican Senate candidate Tim Sheehy, a retired Navy SEAL. Their race has become one of the most closely-watched this cycle as the outcome could alter the balance of power in the Senate.

“Montana Sen. Jon Tester has been a political unicorn for nearly two decades, but in a presidential year with an even more polarized electorate, he is now the underdog heading into the final stretch of the race,” The Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor wrote.

In explaining the change, the election handicapper pointed to recent polls that show Sheehy’s “small but consistent lead” in Big Sky Country.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics also changed its race projection for Montana’s Senate contest, moving it from “toss-up” to “leans Republican” last week.

An AARP poll released earlier this month found Tester trailing Sheehy by 8 percentage points, 49% to 41%, and Sheehy has a 4.4% lead over Tester, according to an average of 14 polls from Decision Desk HQ.

Internal GOP polling showing Sheehy outstripping Tester has also buoyed the confidence of Senate Republicans.

“I’ve seen a number of private polling that is similar to the public polling — I think Tester is going to lose, I feel very certain of that,” a former Senate Republican leadership aide told the Washington Examiner.

With the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., is already expected to lose one seat in the upper chamber. Schumer currently has a 51-seat advantage, as well as Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote. For Democrats to hold the Senate, retaining Tester’s seat will be key.

The Montana Democrat has been difficult for Republicans to defeat, beating an incumbent GOP senator in 2006 and fending off Republican challengers in 2012 and 2018. This time, however, could be different, as Tester has never been on the ballot with former President Donald Trump in a decisively red state.

“The last time Tester was on the ballot in a presidential cycle, the then-freshman senator outran Barack Obama by 7 points even as Mitt Romney won the state by 13 points,” Taylor wrote. “It’s likely that Trump hits his 2020 margin of 16 points — or even higher — which means Tester would need to outrun the top of the ticket by double digits.”