Former Fox News host and Republican Steve Hilton has surged into a surprise lead in California’s gubernatorial race, as the once-unthinkable prospect of a Republican advancing to the general election is becoming increasingly plausible.
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NEW: CALIFORNIA POLL with @CaliforniaICP
Steve Hilton (R) 17%
Eric Swalwell (D) 14%
Chad Bianco (R) 14%
Katie Porter (D) 10%
Tom Steyer (D) 9%
Xavier Becerra (D) 4%
Matt Mahan (D) 3%
Antonio Villaraigosa (D) 3%
Betty Yee (D) 2%
21% undecidedWatch: https://t.co/X1Ghupak8X… pic.twitter.com/AClOv7CB9j
— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) February 18, 2026
According to Emerson College Polling, Hilton leads the field with 17 percent support, while Democrat Congressman Eric Swalwell and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco are tied at 14 percent. Former Democratic Congresswoman Katie Porter follows at 10 percent, with fellow Democrat and billionaire Tom Steyer just a single point behind her.
While no candidate is close to 50 percent support, the latest poll comes as more Californians begin settling on a preferred choice. Emerson College’s December survey found that 31 percent of Golden State voters were undecided; by February, that number had dropped ten points. With the Democratic field splintered among more than a dozen contenders, the prospect of a Republican advancing to the general election is growing more plausible, even in a state that has been dominated by Democrats for more than a decade.
“The good news is that I’m leading and I think you’ve got an energy now for change in California,” Hilton said in an interview with Fox News’ Laura Ingraham. “People are sick of this, and I think that this assumption that a Republican can’t win is just wrong. We’re going to get change this year because it’s 16 years of one-party rule. It’s a total disaster.”
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🚨New poll shows former Fox News host Steve Hilton AHEAD in the governor’s race.
“The good news is I’m leading and there’s an energy for change in California. The assumption that a Republican can’t win is just wrong!”pic.twitter.com/ifE3dGU0On
— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) February 20, 2026
Hilton blasted Governor Gavin Newsom over his recent appearances with global elites, first in Davos at the World Economic Forum and then at last week’s Munich Security Conference, calling the governor “delusional” and accusing the media of fawning coverage.
He’s got these kind of glossy profiles in Vogue, as if none of this is happening, as if he’s presiding over some success story instead of the worst-run state in America. I mean, it’s just the delusion is extraordinary. For some reason, the media seem to go along with it. I don’t quite understand why. They don’t press him on the actual results of what’s happening in California.
🚨 “IT’S ACTUALLY DELUSIONAL.”@SteveHiltonx on @GavinNewsom: “He’s running around on a book tour… glossy profiles in Vogue — as if none of this is happening.”
“As if he’s presiding over some success story instead of the worst-run state in America.”
“The delusion is… pic.twitter.com/MehVxLFoVb
— Laura Ingraham (@IngrahamAngle) February 20, 2026
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This comes as Hilton has already begun working for Californians before stepping anywhere near the governor’s mansion. Already, the leading GOP candidate has launched the California Department of Government Efficiency (CalDOGE) and has begun uncovering millions in fraud.
It remains to be seen whether Democrats will consolidate around a smaller slate of candidates and whether they can prevent a Republican from breaking into the general election. In California, the top two finishers advance regardless of party. For now, Hilton and state Republicans remain optimistic.
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