E. Carolina University Poll: Trump Tops Biden by 5 in N.C.

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Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in North Carolina by 5 percentage points, according to a poll released Tuesday by East Carolina University.

The survey, conducted among 1,332 registered voters from May 31 to June 3, found that Trump leads Biden, 48 to 43%. Just 4% said they were undecided and 3% said they planned to support an independent, minor-party, or write-in candidate. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

Trump last Thursday became the first former U.S. president to be convicted of felony crimes as a New York jury found him guilty of all 34 charges of falsifying business records to cover a $130,000 payment made by disgraced attorney Michael Cohen to porn actor Stormy Daniels.

Trump is expected to appeal the verdict and will face an awkward dynamic as he returns to the campaign trail while being tagged as a convicted felon.

The poll also found:

42% said the most important issue facing people in the state was inflation and/or the cost of living, followed by the economy (17%), new state law on abortion (13%), border security (10%), violent crime and/or public safety (6%), affordability of health care (6%), and climate change and/or the environment (3%).
32% said they are now more likely to vote for Trump because of the verdict compared to 29% who answered that they are now less likely to vote for him. The poll found 37% said the verdict will have no impact on their vote.
37% have “a lot of confidence” that the 2024 election results will accurately reflect the votes that are cast. About one-third (34%) reported having “some confidence” the results will accurately reflect the vote, and almost one-quarter (23%) have “no confidence” (with 7% who are unsure).

“Republicans have won the presidential vote in North Carolina in every election except one (in 2008) since 1980,” Dr. Peter Francia, Director of the ECU Center for Survey Research, said in a statement.

“In light of that history and Donald Trump’s current five-point lead in North Carolina, it seems fair to conclude that Trump is the current favorite to win in North Carolina in 2024. The race for governor, however, is much less clear. [Democrat] Josh Stein performs well with independent voters, but Trump’s strength and coattails will surely help Mark Robinson.”