Former President Donald Trump has about a 2-in-3 chance of returning to the White House, according to a new forecast.

President Joe Biden, meanwhile, currently only has about a 1-in-3 chance to win reelection, The Economist model says.

In mid-June 2020, the same model gave Biden an 83% chance of winning the White House.

“Our model is updated every day and combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict the election results across the country. To work out the likely electoral-vote totals, we run over 10,000 simulations of the election,” The Economist says.

The Economist model on Tuesday showed Trump winning 296 Electoral College votes with Biden receiving 242. A total of 270 electoral votes are needed to win the presidency.

Just one month ago, on June 12, the model showed Trump with a 54-in-100 chance of winning and Biden with a 45-in-100 chance.

The Economist says the election will be determined by six states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. They combine for 77 electoral votes.

In the current model, Trump leads in each of those states. He’s ahead by 1 point in Michigan, by 2 points in Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, by 3 points in Arizona, and by 4 points in Georgia.

Trump carried five of the six states in the 2016 election. Biden won all six in 2020.

The Economist forecast also ranked the most important states to each major party candidate.

Michigan is considered most pivotal for Biden, whose chances of reelection fall to 5-in-100 if he loses the Great Lakes State.

“If one candidate wins Michigan, he is likely ahead in Wisconsin, too,” The Economist said.

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin follow Michigan in importance for Biden, whose overall chances fall to 7-in-100 without Pennsylvania and 9-in-100 without Wisconsin.

For Trump, Pennsylvania is deemed most important. However, the model still gives him a 21-in-100 chance of winning the election without the Keystone State.

The Economist model says the former president’s chance of capturing the overall election falls to 30-in-100 without Michigan or Wisconsin.

Although recent reports say Democrats hope the abortion issue can help flip Florida, The Economist model gives Trump a 94-in-100 chance of winning Florida, and Texas.

Biden has a 99-in-100 chance of winning California, and New York.

The Economist model also shows Trump with a 45% to 44.2% edge in an average of the national polls.

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