GOP Senators Worry Trump Coattails Not Carrying in Polling

(Evan Vucci/AP)

Democrat Senate candidates are running well ahead of President Joe Biden, worrying Republicans that former President Donald Trump’s coattails are not helping the chamber’s election races.

One Republican senator told The Hill on Wednesday that polling shows Democrat incumbents ahead in every single battleground state except Montana, where GOP candidate Tim Sheehy leads Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., by 3 points despite Trump leading Biden in the state by 21 points.

Newsweek reported Saturday that Democrat Senate candidates appear to be pushing ahead in “toss-up” states Michigan, Nevada, and Ohio.

National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chair Steve Daines, R-Mont., though, says the Democrats’ advantage in states such as Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania is a matter of incumbents’ name ID, and adds GOP candidates are polling better in open-seat races in Arizona and Michigan.

“Wherever we have an incumbent — Republican incumbent — running like Ted Cruz [in Texas] and Rick Scott [in Florida]… the Trump number and their own number match virtually identically,” Daines told The Hill,

“Where you have an open seat like in Michigan — Michigan is the best example of that — you’ve got a race that’s basically tied at the Senate level, when Trump’s up a couple.

“You’ve got [Democrat] incumbents in these states where our challengers are running a bit behind the Trump number. That’s a function of name ID. It’s still early. I think we found May through July polls are usually not indicative of what happens in November.”

Daines added Republican candidates are “going to continue to run like we’re 5 points behind, because right now, the polls show that. But it’s not lost on us that as we turn the corner into Labor Day and to the finish, you’re going to see these races tighten up.”

The senator pointed out, of the past 69 Senate races, 68 have mirrored the results of the presidential race — a trend Daines is hoping does not end.

“You’re always concerned by that. Always concerned,” Daines said. “That’s why there’s an intensity and a work ethic right now at the NRSC and amongst our candidates unlike any before.”

Republican senators were informed of the recent poll results last week during a special briefing at the NRSC’s headquarters in Washington, D.C.