Kamala’s Calif. EV Rules to Kill Diesel Truck Sales

Whereas presidential candidate Kamala has recently changed lanes along her campaign route in claiming she no longer favors electric vehicle mandates she emphatically endorsed in her earlier 2019 run, be assured her ultimate destination has never diverted from core California government-knows-best ideology.

Former Sen. Harris backed the Zero-Emission Vehicles Act of 2019 introduced by Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., and Rep. Mike Levin. D-Calif., which was announced as a “bold plan for transitioning the United States to 100% zero-emission vehicles.”

Had it passed, the bill would have forced automobile companies to transition away from fossil fuels by requiring 50% of new passenger vehicle sales to be zero-emission cars by 2030, with the mandate ramping up 5% each year until 2040, when 100% of new vehicles sold would be required to be electric- or hydrogen-powered.

Sen. Harris’s short-lived 2020 campaign promoted even more aggressive rules, pushing for a ban on all combustion engine cars by 2035.

As recently as last March the Harris-Biden administration finalized a crackdown on gas cars, pushing the EPA to enact regulations expected to result in more than two-thirds of passenger cars and light trucks sold by 2032 to be electric or hybrid vehicles.

In comparison, 84% of all cars sold in America are powered by internal combustion engines despite $7,500 federal tax credit subsidies offered as EV incentives to reluctant buyers and jacked-up costs for gasoline models needed to keep vehicle manufacturers financially afloat.

Ford, which posted a $62,016 loss on each EV it sold during the third quarter of last year, has been offering a $7,500 cash rebate on top of the federal tax credit on some F-150 Lightning pickup trucks.

If rules on lagging sales demands of EV cars and light trucks weren’t bad enough, California’s new regulations to eliminate heavy diesel trucks have taken this draconian EPA regulatory overreach to a whole new summit.

Although EVs currently make up less than 1% of U.S. heavy-duty truck sales, nearly all of them based in California, EPA’s new rule requires that they comprise 60% of new urban delivery trucks and 25% of long-haul tractor sales by 2032.

As EPA plans go forward, electric trucks are projected to consume about 11% of California’s electricity by 2030.

According to public comments filed by the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) with the EPA regarding California’s recent Advanced Clean Fleets rule, “dealers are restricted from selling a diesel truck unless they sell a ZEV [“zero emission” vehicle] truck.”

Beginning this year, California will require that 5% of a truck manufacturer’s sales of heavy-duty tractors and 9% of its other trucks sold in the state be ZEVs, with 10 other states scheduled to follow suit with increasingly larger sales-volume requirements over the next three years.

Battery-electric trucks currently represent a minuscule part of the 600,000 commercial trucks sold in the U.S. and Canada.

The absence of a used market for electric trucks also has been a sales impediment, since most trucking companies count on selling their trucks to recover some of their costs.

The big sales problem is that truckers aren’t buying electric big rigs because they can’t afford them. Even with $40,000 in federal tax credits, they cost between two and three times as much as diesel-powered rigs.

An analysis by the Ryder company found that whereas light-duty battery-electric vans raise operating costs by several percentage points, as trucks get heavier the cost difference becomes more pronounced with annual operating expenditures of big rig ZEVs also being twice as expensive as diesel.

Large batteries represent much of the added EV truck costs. Of these, lithium iron phosphate (LFP batteries) produced in China are rapidly replacing more expensive nickel and cobalt types previously used in the U.S. and Europe resulting in dangerous supply chain dependency.

Making matters far worse, the ZEVs have a limited average 150-mile driving range with few available and time-consuming truck charging stations, compared with between 1,000-and 1,500-mile ranges and rapid refueling for diesel trucks.

NADA says its members are incurring monthly interest penalties on unsold truck inventories piling up on sales lots that can amount to more than $99,000 because truckers don’t want electric rigs, while dealers are restricted by EPA in selling much-preferred diesel models.

Ironically, the organization reports that “New class 8 truck sales (ZEV and Diesel) were down 50 percent year-over-year in June 2024” because truckers are driving older diesel models longer, in turn producing greater pollution.

“Without significant modifications,” NADA warns, “there is a very real likelihood that some dealers and their customers will start going out of business in the near future. This will hit small businesses the hardest.”

Local and national trade groups also oppose the EPA rules and regulations.

According to the American Trucking Association, “Considering that 96% of U.S. trucking companies operate 10 or fewer trucks, these mandates are simply cost-prohibitive for most truckers.”

Whatever you choose to call it, whether a government mandate to ban internal combustion engines or a mandate to produce and purchase electric vehicles, a Harris presidency will get us to the same place.

Welcome to Kamala’s California where long caravans of remaining diesel-powered moving vans will be evacuating businesses and families who are racing to states that respect free market choices.

Larry Bell is an endowed professor of space architecture at the University of Houston where he founded the Sasakawa International Center for Space Architecture and the graduate space architecture program. His latest of 12 books is “Architectures Beyond Boxes and Boundaries: My Life By Design” (2022). Read Larry Bell’s Reports — More Here.

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