Marquette Poll: Harris Leads Trump Among Likely Voters

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Vice President Kamala Harris holds a 53%-47% lead over former President Donald Trump among likely voters nationally in a head-to-head race for the White House, according to a new poll by Marquette University Law School.

The vice president’s lead falls to 4 points (52%-48%) among registered voters, according to survey results released Wednesday.

When third-party candidates are added, Harris’ lead over Trump grows to 50%-42% among likely voters. Among registered voters, the vice president’s advantage is 47%-41%.

The Marquette survey was conducted July 24-Aug. 1, after Harris replaced President Joe Biden atop the Democratic Party’s national ticket but before the vice president named fellow progressive Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to be her running mate.

When asked who they think is likely to win in November, 58% say Trump will definitely or probably win, while 42% say Harris will definitely or probably win, according to the Marquette poll.

In May, Marquette’s poll showed Trump with a 51%-49% edge over Biden among likely voters. The two men were tied among registered voters.

Now, with a generic question about congressional races, Democrats have a 4-point lead (52%-48%) over Republicans among registered voters. In May, each party had 50% support.

Harris’ favorability (47%) has improved among registered voters since replacing Biden, with 50% saying they have an unfavorable opinion of the vice president.

In May, 35% said they had a favorable opinion of Harris and 59% said they had an unfavorable view of her.

The latest Marquette survey found that voters say Harris, 59, benefits from being much younger than the 78-year-old Trump, that she “shares my values” more than Trump, and she has the right temperament to be president.

Trump’s advantages, according to the survey, are having strong accomplishments and being a strong leader.

The Marquette poll found that both Trump and Harris are seen as more ideologically extreme than voters see themselves. Among all registered voters, 36% say they have “moderate” political views, 13% say their views are “very conservative,” and 12% say they are “very liberal.”

Respondents say the economy is the top-rated issue, followed by immigration. Three issues — abortion policy, Medicare/Social Security, and ensuring fair elections — are tied for next most important.

The survey was conducted among 879 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.1 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 683 with a margin of error of +/-4.7 percentage points.