Morning Consult Poll: Sen. Cruz Trails in Texas Race

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Incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is trailing his Democrat opponent in the latest Morning Consult poll.

Rep. Colin Allred, a former NFL player, leads Cruz 45% to 44%, Morning Consult poll results show. It’s the first time Allred has been ahead in the Texas U.S. Senate race.

Texas voters have selected a Republican to represent them in the Senate every year since 1990.

The Morning Consult survey was conducted Sept. 9 and 18 among 2,716 likely voters. The poll has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

“For the first time in this race, a new poll has us leading Ted Cruz by 1 point. I don’t know about y’all but I’m fired up and ready to WIN! We’ve got 47 days, let’s do this Texas,” Allred said Thursday in a post on X.

Republicans are taking notice.

“What the hell is wrong with the Senate race in Texas ? I think i know …and i think i know his name … time to get some real professionals in to save @tedcruz,” Chris LaCivita, GOP nominee Donald Trump’s campaign manager, wrote in a post on X last week.

Recent polling, though, indicates the Morning Consult result could be an outlier.

Despite Allred’s small lead, the Cook Political Report classifies the Senate race as a likely Republican seat.

The RealClear Polling Average shows Cruz with a 6-point lead.

A YouGov/University of Texas survey conducted Aug. 23-31 found Cruz 8 points ahead.

A Morning Consult poll from Aug. 30 and Sept. 8 found that Cruz was ahead of Allred by 5 points (47% to 42%).

University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs survey results announced late last month showed Cruz leading Allred 46.6% to 44.5% among likely voters with 6.4% of likely voters saying they remain undecided.

Cruz, who’s seeking a third term, was reelected in 2018 when he defeated Beto O’Rourke by 214,921 votes of more than 8.3 million cast.

It was announced Friday that Cruz and Allred, have agreed to a televised debate Oct. 15 in Dallas, marking the first onstage faceoff between the two Senate nominees, The Texas Tribune reported.

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