Three weeks before the 2024 presidential election, a potential October surprise looms over a race that polls show is too close to call.
Presidential campaigns have been upended by last-minute news in the past.
As documented by Politico, the term “October surprise” first appeared in 1980 when Ronald Reagan’s campaign was concerned President Jimmy Carter would engineer the release of the 52 American hostages being held in Iran, giving Carter’s campaign a boost.
Reagan Campaign Manager Bill Casey publicly warned that Carter might be planning such an “October surprise,” and the campaign urged its friends in the intelligence and military communities to flag any movements that suggested the hostages may be released, according to Politico.
On the Friday before the 1992 presidential election, former Reagan Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger was indicted for attempting to cover up the Iran-contra affair, creating headaches for President George H.W. Bush, who served as Reagan’s vice president. Bush lost the election to Bill Clinton and pardoned Weinberger before he left office.
A week before the 2000 election, it was revealed that George W. Bush had been pulled over for drunk driving in 1976. Bush strategist Karl Rove said it cost Bush the popular vote and as many five states, Politico reported.
In 2004, four days before the election, Osama Bin Laden released a video taking responsibility for the Sept. 11 attacks. John Kerry, the Democrat nominee, blamed the video for his razor-thin margin of loss to Bush since it put terrorism in the spotlight, an area that was a strength for the president, Politico reported.
The 2008 presidential campaign saw the collapse of the financial market, which boosted Barack Obama’s campaign, especially after John McCain appeared to struggle with how to respond.
Hillary Clinton blamed part of her loss in 2016 with FBI Director James Comey’s announcement he was reopening his investigation into her use of private emails while serving as secretary of state.
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