Trafalgar Poll: Trump Leads Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania

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A new survey of likely voters from Trafalgar Group has former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in four key swing states.

The poll released Friday shows Trump leading Harris by 2 percentage points in Pennsylvania 46% to 44%, 1 point in Arizona 48% to 47%, 3 points in Nevada at 48% to 45%, and 4 points in North Carolina 49% to 45%.

The polls come as voters have adjusted to the reality of Harris taking over the top of the Democratic ticket from President Joe Biden, who announced in July that he was no longer seeking reelection. This week, Harris chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.

While Trump has consistently polled well in North Carolina and Nevada this election cycle, Pennsylvania and Arizona have fluctuated greatly. With the electoral map shifting daily, Pennsylvania might be the key to victory for either candidate with Trump winning the state in 2016 and Biden taking it in 2020.

Last week, CNN’s Harry Enten said that even if Harris were to lose Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, she could still gain the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the election by winning Pennsylvania.

The Trafalgar Group poll was taken Aug. 6-8 among 1,000 likely voters in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. The poll did not cite a sampling error.