(TNND) — A record-high 45% of Americans say they’re political independents, according to Gallup.
But far fewer folks are pure free agents when they head to the voting booth.
And shifts among independents look like they’ll favor Democrats when the midterms arrive this fall.
Gallup has never found as many Americans claiming the independent label, though independents have accounted for the largest share of voters in most years of the tracking that goes back nearly 40 years.
Last year, 27% identified each as Republican and Democrat.
Outright majorities of Gen Zers (born 1997-2007) and millennials (born 1981-96) identified as political independents.
But Gallup also drilled down to identify the party leaners among independent voters. And that showed the combined totals of Democrats and Democratic leaners now hold a 47% to 42% edge over Republicans and Republican leaners.
Just 10% of Americans are considered non-leaning independents, according to Gallup.
Meanwhile, the American National Election Studies showed just 6.7% of voters were pure independents in 2024, the smallest share in over 70 years of that tracking.
ANES showed another 27.7% were leaning independents, 22.5% were weak partisans, and 43% were strong partisans.
There aren’t a lot of pure independents, but Oklahoma State University politics professor Seth McKee said they can still make a big impact in elections.
“Those people really do float in the breeze,” he said. “I mean, they are the ones that any politician has to fear, because if things don’t go in their direction, they’re the punishers.”
Meanwhile, McKee said the folks who say they are independents but lean right or left are really closet partisans, at least in terms of voting behavior.
McKee said more people are likely calling themselves independents out of distaste for contentious partisan politics.
“They’re claiming they’re independent, because they don’t want to be associated with this stuff,” he said.
The new Gallup report also showed voter preference skewing away from President Donald Trump and toward the Democratic Party.
The 5-point advantage for Democrats broke a three-year stretch in which Republicans held the edge in party affinity, according to Gallup.
And Gallup’s quarterly tracker showed the edge growing even larger for Democrats.
Counting leaners, the GOP had a 47% to 43% advantage in the fourth quarter of 2024, coinciding with Trump’s electoral victory.
By the fourth quarter of 2025, Democrats had flipped the script and held a 48% to 40% advantage over Republicans.
FILE – President Donald Trump takes a question from a reporter before signing executive orders with the Trump Gold Card displayed behind him in the Oval Office at the White House on September 19, 2025. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
McKee said partisans aren’t switching camps. That shift is coming from independents, he said.
And he said it’s a classic pattern when there’s an unpopular incumbent sitting in the White House.
“What we’re seeing with that Gallup data, oh man, that is a big-time problem for the Republicans,” McKee said. “I mean, I look at that, just back of the envelope, and I say you could lose 30 to 35 seats (in the House) with that kind of shift.”
Indeed, history suggests Democrats will recapture the tightly contested House from Republicans this year.
The sitting president’s party has lost seats in the House in eight of 10 midterm elections going back 40 years. Trump’s Republicans lost 40 House seats in the 2018 midterms.
The Cook Political Report has just 17 of 435 House seats marked as toss-ups for this year’s midterms, but McKee said he expects more seats to really be in play.
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