The Latest Marquette Poll Is Bad News for David Crowley. Here’s Why.

Yesterday, the Marquette University (MU) Law poll dropped, showing that Democrat David Crowley and Republican Tom Tiffany are in a dead heat in the Wisconsin governor’s race, with 12 percent of registered voters remaining undecided.

The governor’s race is tied among all registered voters at 44% each for Crowley and Tiffany, with 12% undecided. #mulawpoll

— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) August 26, 2026

Among likely voters, Crowley only has a five point lead.

A new Marquette Law School Poll of Wisconsin finds that in the race for governor, Democrat David Crowley is leading Republican Tom Tiffany among likely voters by 49% to 44%, with 7% undecided. #mulawpoll

— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) August 26, 2026

This is good news for Tom Tiffany, and here’s why: the August MU Law poll has always overestimated the Democrat.

Today’s Marquette University Law School Poll is setting the narrative that David Crowley has a comfortable lead, but I crunched the data and found that Marquette’s August poll always dramatically overestimates Democrat support. https://t.co/u0sYGHDq6w

— Dan O’Donnell (@DanODonnellShow) August 26, 2026

Here’s more:

Since its inception, Marquette’s August poll has not just been wildly unsuccessful at predicting the ultimate result of a November race; it has also overestimated Democrats’ support by an average of 3.5%. Even when taking out the anomalous 2016 presidential election (when every poll right up until Election Day) was enormously wrong, the average overestimation of Democrat support by 2.1%.

Just once did it get a race exactly right in August—its 2024 presidential election poll showing President Trump beating Kamala Harris by a point—and in five of the nine August polls of presidential and gubernatorial races it has conducted over the past decade, it has been off by six or more points. In every single one of those five massive misses, it dramatically overestimated the support of the Democrat.

Just once, in that August 2024 presidential poll, did it ever show the Republican candidate leading even though Republican candidates went on to win their respective races four times in nine elections.

Just three times in nine polls did the August Marquette poll overestimate Republican support: In 2018, when it showed incumbent governor Scott Walker and challenger Tony Evers tied (Evers went on to win the race by a point) and incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin up three on challenger Leah Vukmir (Baldwin won by 11), and in 2022, when it had Evers leading Republican Tim Michels by two points (Evers won by three).

O’Donnell theorizes the attacks on Crowley’s data center stance are damaging his campaign.

Proof that “Data Center David” is doing real damage to Crowley. Over the ten-year history of this poll, Democrats usually lead by 5-10 in August. https://t.co/HifwJPuhXr

— Dan O’Donnell (@DanODonnellShow) August 26, 2026

And here’s more behind that.

Proof that “Data Center David” is doing real damage to Crowley. Over the ten-year history of this poll, Democrats usually lead by 5-10 in August. https://t.co/HifwJPuhXr

— Dan O’Donnell (@DanODonnellShow) August 26, 2026

“Data centers are now the issue in the governor’s race and Republican Tom Tiffany has staked out the position that the overwhelming majority of Wisconsin is on, and David Crowley’s past comments pretty much throughout the primary are positioning him as the guy who wants to bring more data centers to communities that aren’t his. And that’s the critical thing,” O’Donnell said.

“Crowley is from Milwaukee and the rest of Wisconsin always views Milwaukee, rightly or wrongly, with a good bit of suspicion,” he continued. “Yes, it’s the economic engine of the entire state, but it’s also seen as forcing its will on the other 71 counties. The Milwaukee County Executive very publicly earlier this month saying that he wants to ‘share the wealth of data’ centers with the rest of the state’ now that Milwaukee, Madison, and Green Bay already have them, is being interpreted as meaning, ‘Yeah, no, my community of Milwaukee and my favored liberal cities of Madison and Green Bay don’t want or need data centers. But you smaller, Republican, rural, and exurban communities? You need them so that you can be the economic engine of the state in the economy of tomorrow, absorbing all of the negatives of data centers while we in Milwaukee, Madison, and Green Bay generate the revenue in the form of state tax income, while absorbing none of the negatives.”

“That is a big, big problem.”

This writer has lived in Milwaukee County her entire life, and the rest of the state does not like the county much. As O’Donnell said, many see Milwaukee as sucking up the state’s tax dollars while not addressing the crime and poverty that are rampant in the city of Milwaukee, crime that also spills out into the suburbs in nearby counties.

And given Crowley’s mismanagement of the County — from high taxes to budget deficits to crime — he’s got an uphill battle going into November.

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

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