A recent Gonzales Maryland Poll reveals a significant 35% drop in Baltimore City’s homicide rate over the past year, sparking debate over who deserves credit for the decline.
The poll shows that 36% of Marylanders credit Mayor Brandon Scott, while 30% believe City State’s Attorney Ivan Bates deserves more recognition.
However, the data highlights a sharp division along political and demographic lines.
Partisan views are notably split, with 48% of Democrats crediting Scott compared to 25% for Bates. But 43% of Republicans favor Bates, with only 15% crediting Scott. Independent voters are more divided, slightly favoring Scott (31%-27%) but showing the highest rate of non-response, indicating a weaker attachment to either narrative.
Gender and race have diverse opinions about who to credit for the decline in homicides. Women tend to credit Scott more (41% to 25%), while men lean towards Bates (36% to 30%). Among African American voters, Scott holds a strong statewide lead (55% to 33%), though Black voters in Baltimore City are nearly evenly split between the two leaders.
Regional differences also emerge. In the Washington suburbs, Black voters overwhelmingly credit Scott (66% to 20%), while white voters statewide are nearly evenly divided between Bates (29%) and Scott (28%), with a significant portion choosing “neither” or offering no response.
Baltimore residents lean towards crediting Scott (47% to 37%), with the lowest rate of non-response, indicating a more direct awareness of local leadership efforts. In contrast, the Baltimore suburbs show a preference for Bates (36% to 29%), reflecting varied regional perceptions.
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Overall, while the homicide rate drop is acknowledged, the attribution of credit is heavily influenced by political identity and geography, rather than a unified understanding of the factors behind the change, according to the Gonzales Poll.
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