HUNT VALLEY, Md. (TNND) — A small group of Polymarket bets placed shortly before Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s capture are prompting some to question the timing of the bets. One congressman is poised to unleash a legislative proposal targeting insider trading in prediction markets.
One of the accounts was created on December 27th and has only made two bets — one on the U.S. invading Venezuela, and the other on Maduro being forced out of leadership by January 31st. Whoever was placing the bets put down $35,000 when the prediction market platform estimated the probability of intervention at just 6%.
The operation was eventually conducted early Saturday morning — on January 3rd. U.S. military officials initially discussed bombing Venezuela on Christmas Day but held off and waged a campaign against ISIS in Africa, according to media reports. The eventual move to arrest Maduro came as a surprise to the public.
President Trump has been threatening Venezuela for weeks, accusing Maduro of trafficking in narcotics. More recently, the U.S. seized oil ships and conducted drone strikes inside Caracas.
The three bettors involved made a combined profit totaling $630,484, according to on-chain analyst Lookonchain. One wallet exited with a profit of more than $400,000, while the second largest made out with $145,000. The third earned $75,000.
The implication is that one or all of the people who made the bets possibly gained access to non-public information before others in the market could respond accordingly, which is illegal in conventional finance, but there is no enforcement instrument regulating this kind of action in prediction markets.
Rep. Richie Torres, D-NY, is aiming to apply some rules to the road in these decentralized platforms.
The New York Democrat is introducing a bill barring federal election officials, political appointees, and executive branch employees from trading prediction markets connected to government policy or political outcomes if they have access to nonpublic information, Punchbowl News is reporting.
A representative for Torres told reporters that the bill was in the pipeline, but that news of bets and Trump’s decision to move on Maduro made the bill more urgent. He hopes to gain co-sponsors for the bill in the coming days and weeks, according to the report.
Kalshi told social media followers that such insider trading is prohibited on the platform. Polymarket has yet to respond to questions about its policies regarding insider trading, but The National News Desk will update this article if the platform provides a statement.
President Donald Trump waves as he arrives on Air Force One, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026, at Joint Base Andrews, Md. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
One possible alternative explanation came from a Polymarket trader, who suggested on the X platform that they made a large bet on Maduro after noticing several orders from Domino’s Pizza locations surrounding the Pentagon. Such orders are sometimes believed to be a proxy for increased staffing for late-night activity.
Claims of insider trading have followed President Donald Trump around throughout his second term.
Suspicious trading activity emerged around the president’s meme coin last January as the coin’s market cap spiked over $40 billion. One cryptocurrency wallet was funded with $1 million a few hours before the TRUMP token’s launch, according to on-chain analytics firm Bubblemaps.
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