Democrats hit roadblock in countering Republicans mid-decade redistricting

WASHINGTON (TNND) — Democrats’ hopes of redistricting Virginia’s House seats to be more favorable to the party in the upcoming midterms hit a roadblock when a judge ruled their plan to remake the state’s map was illegal, potentially costing the party its best chance at a new pick-up opportunity as Republicans in other states plan their next moves.

Republicans are trying to defy historical patterns with the help of new maps to combat their majorities being wiped away in the midterm election amid voter frustrations about the state of the economy and cost of living. Recent turmoil over the administration’s crackdown on immigration in Minnesota and the deaths of two people shot by immigration agents has added to the backlash facing the GOP come November.

Republicans are already working on a narrow margin in the House that got tighter with the resignation of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and California Rep. Doug LaMalfa’s death. Both seats are likely to be filled by Republicans, but the vacancies highlight the challenges facing the party to govern ahead of November and narrow margins they’re facing when voters cast ballots.

Democrats are optimistic about the party’s chances after dominating the off-year elections and expanded their list of targets amid the redistricting back-and-forth.

The nationwide fight over congressional maps for the November midterms started when Texas redrew its maps to make five seats currently held by Democrats more favorable to the GOP. State lawmakers in North Carolina, Ohio and Missouri also passed new maps netting the party four more seats based on previous voting patterns. An effort to wipe out Indiana’s two Democratic districts was foiled by state senators despite persistent pressure from the White House.

Democrats have launched a counter-effort in a handful of states, but so far have only been able to redraw California’s maps after its residents passed a ballot measure in the off-year election giving the party a likely pick-up of five seats. A court-mandated redraw of Utah’s maps has also created a pickup opportunity for Democrats with a seat in heavily Democratic-leaning Salt Lake City.

Democrats have a more challenging path to redistricting in the states they have full-party control over the government with constitutional amendments or other legal restrictions on partisan mapmaking that lawmakers or voters have to approve. In some states, like New York, there was not enough time to implement new House maps in time for 2026.

Virginia Democrats have also have to get a constitutional amendment in place to redo the maps, which ran into a roadblock on Tuesday when a judge ruled the plan to redraw the state’s maps with a 10-1 split was illegal, potentially dooming the party’s best remaining opportunity for 2026. State Democrats have vowed to appeal the ruling, but the timeline of the legal battle may further complicate efforts to have a new map in place by November.

“It feels like we’re kind of winding down, but maybe, maybe not,” said Shawn Donahue, a clinical assistant professor of political science at the University at Buffalo who studies redistricting. “Clearly, there’s some states that might to look to what they want to do in 2028.”

In Maryland, a map to wipe out the seat of the state’s lone Republican in Congress held by Rep. Andy Harris, advanced out of a state House committee on Tuesday after Gov. Wes Moore appeared in person to push delegates to advance it.

“Debate the map, improve it, if necessary. And then take the vote, because make no mistake, what the President of the United States is doing right now is political redlining,” Moore said.

While the new map has the backing of the governor and state House leadership, it is still facing opposition from state Senate President Bill Ferguson, who argues it could backfire and cost Democrats a seat. He has also said that upcoming election deadlines and the legal challenges a new map are certain to face make the plan untenable.

“I don’t think much has changed since our initial analysis,” Ferguson told reporters ahead of the hearing. “We’re well past the window of opportunity of doing anything even were that the case.”

Republicans still have more opportunities to pick up seats through redistricting in Florida, where Gov. Ron DeSantis is planning to call a special session to address it in April. It’s unclear how aggressive the legislature will be in redrawing the current 20-8 split, but the state’s continued tilt to the right provides more opportunities to pick up seats.

How much the electoral landscape will ultimately change is murky with shifting voter coalitions and the rate at which states have combatted each other with their own redistricting proposals. With states governed by both parties approving new maps, most election forecasters have the split of seats essentially neutral compared to before the nationwide gerrymander spat started.

“It felt to me that Virginia and Florida kind of washed each other, Texas and California were kind of washing each other out. Democrats got their seat in Utah, but Republicans are probably going to get the one in Missouri,” Donahue said.

The Supreme Court could also throw another variable into the redistricting mix depending on how it rules on whether to weaken a key provision of the Voting Rights Act barring racial discrimination in mapmaking and voting practices. If the court rules to weaken it, Democrats could suffer significant losses of safe seats in the south. But the timing of the ruling could keep that from effecting the 2026 elections with filing deadlines and primaries quickly approaching.