EXCLUSIVE: Karen Bass is in ‘Serious Jeopardy’ of Losing Mayoral Race, Poll Suggests

The Los Angeles top-two mayoral primary race on Tuesday is expected to be a dead heat between incumbent Mayor Karen Bass and political newcomer Spencer Pratt, as new polling data exclusively obtained by Townhall from Plymouth Union Public (PUP) Research indicates a statistical tie.

Bass leads Pratt by 2.3% in the poll, with the mayor getting 23.5% of the vote of those polled compared with 21.2% for Pratt. Los Angeles City Councilwoman Nithya Raman, who’s running to the left of Bass, is in a distant third place at 12.7%, with other candidates polling in the single digits. 

She made it worse for four years, but NOW she’s totally got the secret fix figured out. Trust her, guys. She was just biding her time. https://t.co/1tsmxTXz0l

— Spencer Pratt (@spencerpratt) May 29, 2026

The survey was conducted among 600 likely primary voters from May 14-18, with a 4% margin of error. Democrats made up 60.3% of those polled, but 17.5% were Republicans and 22.2% were unaffiliated voters. 

However, there is still room for candidates in the race to make their mark, as 31.2% said they were undecided or declined to answer. Among undecided voters, Bass has a negative net favorability of 30%, Pratt has a negative net favorability of 12.9%, and Raman is at negative 6.1%. Bass’s unfavorable ratings are sky-high at 48.2%, compared with 25.7% for Pratt. 

Overall, Bass’s unfavorability is at 51.2%, whereas 34.3% view her favorably. 

“On the ballot, Bass holds a narrow 2.3-point lead over Spencer Pratt (within the margin of error), but with undecided voters breaking heavily against her, the incumbent is in serious jeopardy,” the memo continues, explaining that her unfavorability is “a ceiling problem that compounds her incumbency disadvantage.”

Over 53% of those surveyed said they believe Los Angeles is headed in the “wrong direction,” whereas 22.5% believe it’s on the right track, and 23% are unsure. 

When asked about how city leadership has handled response and recovery to the devastating 2025 wildfires, including in Pacific Palisades, over 57% either strongly or somewhat disapproved. 

“Los Angeles voters have rendered a harsh verdict on the status quo,” the polling memo states. “The city is on the wrong track by a 30-point margin, Mayor Bass is underwater by 17 points, and her handling of the wildfire recovery has been rejected by nearly 6-in-10 voters — including nearly half of those who voted for Kamala Harris in 2024.”

“The work Karen Bass is doing in Los Angeles is making our entire state stronger. An 18% decline in homelessness while it grew nationally, historic drops in violent crime, boosting film production in L.A., and protecting our communities against ICE. She has my full support for… pic.twitter.com/ZH5auDHyka

— Karen Bass (@KarenBassLA) May 28, 2026

The memo underscored that there is room for Pratt to ascend in the race.

“Underwater but 30% have never heard. Room to introduce,” the memo said of him, whereas only 9.1% said they have “never heard” of the incumbent mayor. The pollster suggests that “Pratt and Raman have meaningful runway to define themselves before primary day.”

The race has garnered significant media attention nationwide, as Pratt’s campaign gained significant traction on social media, and Bass continues to face scrutiny for her response to the 2025 wildfires.

“Media coverage surrounding the race has created some polarization — 28% say recent information makes them much more likely to support [Pratt], while 40% say much less likely,” the memo states. “Nearly 30% of undecided voters have never heard of him, giving him room to define himself.”

If one of the choices for mayor wins a majority on Tuesday, then a November runoff would be avoided.