WASHINGTON (TNND) — The latest round of U.S.–Iran nuclear talks is unfolding against a complicated backdrop, one shaped not just by diplomacy, but by what’s happening on the ground inside Iran.
The negotiations come a little more than seven months after U.S. and Israeli strikes hit Iran’s nuclear facilities during Operation Midnight Hammer. At the time, those strikes were described as a significant blow to Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure. But new satellite imagery suggests the story didn’t end there. An analysis by The New York Times of high-resolution satellite images shows that many of the nuclear and missile-related sites damaged in the strikes are already being rebuilt. Experts who track Iran’s nuclear and missile programs reviewed roughly two dozen locations hit by either the U.S. or Israel and found construction activity underway at more than half of them.
The imagery shows new buildings rising at several facilities, indicating Iran has moved quickly to restore damaged infrastructure. What the images cannot show, however, is what may be happening underground. Analysts caution that satellite imagery is limited to above-ground activity, leaving open questions about whether sensitive work is continuing below the surface.
Nuclear negotiations
At the same time, U.S. and Iranian officials met in Oman for indirect, Oman-mediated talks aimed at restarting nuclear negotiations. No formal agreement emerged from those meetings, but officials did clarify where each side stands. According to reporting from Al Jazeera, Iran signaled it would be willing to scale back parts of its nuclear program, including lowering uranium enrichment levels and allowing increased inspections, in exchange for significant sanctions relief, particularly measures that would allow Iranian oil exports to resume. Iranian officials framed nuclear concessions as a pathway to economic recovery.
What Iran made clear, however, is that some issues remain off the table. According to the Institute for the Study of War, Tehran has said it will not negotiate over its ballistic missile program or its regional alliances, a reference to proxy groups it has supported for years, including Hamas and Hezbollah.
To understand why these talks matter, it helps to step back and look at the history of Iran’s nuclear program.
Origins of Iran’s nuclear aspirations
According to the Congressional Research Service, Iran’s nuclear efforts date back to the 1950s. U.S. officials began expressing concern in the mid-1970s that Tehran might eventually pursue nuclear weapons. Since then, American and international watchdogs have consistently said Iran has not launched a formal nuclear weapons program, but it has steadily built out the technical capabilities that could be used to produce one.
That distinction is critical. Iran has not been caught assembling a nuclear bomb, but it has invested heavily in uranium enrichment and other nuclear technologies that could shorten the path to a weapon if the political decision were made.
So how close is Iran today?
According to the Council on Foreign Relations, it is closer than ever from a technical standpoint. The group reports that Iran has enriched uranium to roughly 60 percent, well below the approximately 90 percent needed for a nuclear weapon, but far above levels required for civilian energy use. U.S. and international analysts assess that Iran could produce enough weapons-grade nuclear material in a matter of weeks, or even days, if it chose to do so. Turning that material into a functional nuclear weapon, however, would likely take significantly longer and involve additional technical hurdles.
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