(TNND) — The leader of Mexico’s powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel was killed this weekend by Mexican forces, sparking a backlash of violence that has left some American tourists stranded.
Ernesto Sagás, an expert in Latin American politics who teaches at Colorado State University, said the violence in Mexico could get worse before it gets better.
And Sagás said it remains to be seen if the operation that took out Jalisco cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, or “El Mencho,” will simply be a “highly symbolic” one-off or the start of an all-out war against the cartels.
Either way, Sagás said the operation, which reportedly was intended to capture Oseguera Cervantes, is likely to strengthen the U.S.-Mexico relationship as President Donald Trump has been pushing Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum to crack down harder on cartels.
“So, it may signal a new era of cooperation. It may signal that President Claudia Sheinbaum is now playing ball with Trump,” Sagás said. “What happens after this? Then, it’s hard to tell.”
Sagás said all-out wars against Mexican cartels have been tried before, with a lot of casualties on both sides.
“It’s a very complex problem that defies simple solutions,” he said. “And part of the problem does not entirely lie with Mexico and how entrenched it is in Mexican society and the corruption and the threats of the violence. It also has to do with demand in the U.S.”
Ian Vásquez, the vice president for international studies at the Cato Institute, said Oseguera Cervantes’ death will be seen as a victory in the war on drugs. But he said the cartel leader’s death is also sure to generate a lot of instability in Mexico.
Vásquez, too, said the Mexican government appears to have cracked down on the Jalisco cartel under pressure from the American government.
The U.S. government had put a $15 million bounty on Oseguera Cervantes’ head and designated his cartel as a foreign terrorist organization.
U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau, who applauded the operation that killed Oseguera Cervantes, called him “one of the bloodiest and most ruthless drug kingpins.”
“It’s not surprising that the bad guys are responding with terror,” Landau added via a social media post. “But we must never lose our nerve.”
The National Counterterrorism Center said the Jalisco cartel generates billions of dollars annually from its drug trafficking and other criminal activities, including extortion, fuel theft, kidnapping, illegal logging and mining, migrant smuggling, and timeshare fraud.
The criminal organization, also known as Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generación, or CJNG, has upwards of 20,000 members, uses extreme violence and operates throughout Mexico, according to the National Counterterrorism Center.
“Whenever you get rid of a drug capo, you end up producing more violence as different groups position themselves to take over the business,” Vásquez said. “What you don’t see over time is any reduction in the flow of drugs to the United States. And I’m afraid that’s just a function of the illicit drug market. There’s always going to be a tremendous incentive for criminal groups to take over the space that somebody else leaves behind. And that really is what makes the drug war a futile effort.”
Vásquez said there are no easy answers to stopping cartels, but he suggested drug legalization on this side of the border would help defang the cartels that operate through violence and corruption.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the U.S. provided Mexican authorities with intelligence that helped with the operation against Oseguera Cervantes.
“President Trump has been very clear — the United States will ensure narcoterrorists sending deadly drugs to our homeland are forced to face the wrath of justice they have long deserved,” Leavitt said on X. “The Trump Administration also commends and thanks the Mexican military for their cooperation and successful execution of this operation.”
David Mora, Mexico analyst for the International Crisis Group, wrote that Sunday’s operation is likely to strengthen Sheinbaum’s negotiating position with Trump.
And Mora said the Mexican president has demonstrated that cooperation and intelligence-sharing can produce the results that Trump desires, along with showing that Mexican troops are equipped to take down high-value targets.
“But claiming a top criminal scalp will not spare the government from a messy aftermath,” Mora wrote. “Federal authorities announced that they are reinforcing troop deployments to contain the cartel’s backlash, which may be protracted. El Mencho left no clear heir, and the remaining leaders could dispute control.”
Sagás said the cartel’s retribution could spill over on the U.S. side of the border, though that risks retaliation by the Trump administration.
He said the cartels may instead go underground for a while and sort out their issues.
But he, like the other experts, said Oseguera Cervantes’ death stirs the hornet’s nest. And rival cartels are likely to see this as an opportunity to expand their areas of operation.
“It’s kind of counterintuitive, but when things are in place, it’s much safer for everyone involved,” Sagás said. “It’s kind of like the mutually assured destruction we have with the Soviet Union. You know who the enemy is, and you kind of fear that enemy, but also there’s kind of a modus vivendi with them.”
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