Mississippi’s New Democrat Senator Had Three Words for Cindy Hyde-Smith. It Was Pretty Classy

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It was an election stunner: Mississippi has a black senator, Scott Colom, for the first time since Reconstruction. You have to go back to Blanche K. Bruce, a Republican, who left office in 1881. It’s historic, and one we maybe should’ve seen coming if not for regional bias. It also brings up something we might have to consider, which we’ll get to in a second. 

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Outgoing Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith had some missteps, especially with the ‘choose another protein’ stuff, which was abysmal. But Colom isn’t dancing on her grave. In fact, the incoming Democrat posted something rather classy about Ms. Hyde-Smith: “God bless her.”

It’s a nice post, and it pales in comparison to what some progressive comedian posted, pranking Hyde-Smith’s staffers about the race that hadn’t been called, which was met with universal condemnation for not being funny, petty, and an overall d**k move. 

Colom is also unlikely to be a crazy lefty Democrat. He can’t be. His coalition is as volatile as the Trump base, which can and does vote for Democrats. 

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The New York Times described it as a coalition made up of “Black voters, white voters, enthusiastic college students, angry suburbanites and discontented small-town conservatives.”

If he loses “small-town conservatives,” aka white people, Colom is out of a job in six years. He’s not that dumb. He may have won, but there’s a fine line, and if he loses white voter support, he’s finished. And that’s the underlying story here.

Mississippi has a large black community, comprising 37 percent of the state’s population, that is overwhelmingly Democratic. It gives any Democrat running statewide a pretty solid footing, earning anywhere from 37-44 percent of the vote. The white vote usually provides a firewall, but not this year. The secret sauce was winning black turnout, which happened, and clinching about a quarter of the white vote, which also happened. Mississippi’s 45-64 age bloc also swung 24 points to the Democrats from 2024. The over-65 bloc saw a D+11 shift. 

This isn’t so much about the black vote as it is about the GOP collapsing with white voters across the board in the Deep South. In this race, across all age blocs, there were double-digit shifts toward the Democrats. Small shifts in the white vote can wreck you; a double-digit swing is a blindside hit.

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Exit question: Did pursuing that race-based congressional apportionment cost us? The gutting of that provision in the Voting Rights Act awakened a black voter tsunami, and for the first time in what feels like forever, the Democrats won the popular vote across the Deep South in the midterm races. It took down Hyde-Smith. It almost stopped Julia Letlow in Louisiana.

I’m pro-gerrymandering, but I’m willing to see the data on this. From what I’ve read, black voters knew they were going to be under GOP rule, but that VRA provision was their firewall, a guarantee of a seat at the table at least. When that got chucked into the woodchipper, they responded. 

Still, the Colom win shows that nothing is ever safe, and even in states that seem impossible for some parties, there are many ways to skin the electoral cat. 

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