New Poll Could Show Who’s Leading In the Texas Republican Senate Primary

The first poll released after last Tuesday’s Texas Republican Senate primary race shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton leading incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) as the two candidates head toward the runoff election set to take place on May 26.

Looming over the race is President Donald Trump’s potential endorsement. The president declared that he would withhold his endorsement from both candidates until the SAVE America Act is passed. His input has the power to reshape the race entirely.

BREAKING – John Thune appears to hint that he is the one preventing President Trump from endorsing Ken Paxton for Texas’s Senate seat, saying he “hopes the president will endorse John Cornyn,” with many claiming Thune is using the SAVE Act to protect Cornyn. pic.twitter.com/3pkAgF0Sw7

— Right Angle News Network (@Rightanglenews) March 5, 2026

Texas Public Opinion Research released the findings of a poll showing Paxton leading Cornyn 49 percent to 41 percent with 11 percent undecided. The polls also analyzed the potential impact of a Trump endorsement and found that even if Trump backs Cornyn, Paxton would still hold a slight advantage at 44 percent to 43 percent.

Politico: Trump is delaying Texas Senate endorsement to pressure GOP senators on SAVE America Act

Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton are vying for a nod from Trumphttps://t.co/9YsAtOjMp8

— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) March 9, 2026

However, if Trump chooses Paxton, it would blow the race wide open, pushing Paxton’s lead to 58 percent to 32 percent. It also showed that those who supported Rep. Wesley Hunt (TX-38) in the initial primary race broke for Paxton, with 48 percent of his voters supporting the attorney general compared to only 31 percent for Cornyn.

New poll of #TXSEN Republican primary runoff for Texas Public Opinion Research by Slingshot Strategies (D):

Paxton 49%
Cornyn 41
Undecided 11

If Trump endorses Cornyn: Paxton +1
If Trump endorses Paxton: Paxton +26

(March 7-8; 781 LVs; +/-3.9%)https://t.co/kFG2AZukAa

— Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) March 9, 2026

After both candidates failed to clear the 50 percent threshold required to win the March 3 primary, the race shifted to a runoff election.

Trump said he would make an endorsement decision “fairly shortly” but indicated he would wait until after the Save American Act is passed. 

It is worth noting that Texas Public Opinion Research bills itself as a nonpartisan organization, but is a Democratic-aligned project run by a former Democratic operative.

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