There’s a Clear Frontrunner in California’s Governor Race, but It’s Not Who You’d Expect

As the race for California’s next governor heats up, it looks like there’s a clear frontrunner for the job, and it’s not who you expect it to be. In an Emerson poll, Democrat Eric Swalwell has a statistically insignificant lead over Republican Steve Hilton, but “Not Sure” leads the pack with 25 percent.

And since December, undecided has been the leading response by far.

CALIFORNIA POLL – Governor (top 2 advance)

🟦 Eric Swalwell: 17% (+3)
🟥 Steve Hilton: 13% (-4)
🟦 Tom Steyer: 11% (+2)
🟥 Chad Bianco: 11% (-3)
🟦 Katie Porter: 8% (-2)
🟦 A. Villaraigosa: 3%
🟦 Xavier Becerra: 3%
🟦 Matt Mahan: 3%
🟦 Betty Yee: 2%
⬜ Not sure: 25%

Emerson (A)… pic.twitter.com/wR3qPbiJOB

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) March 11, 2026

Of course, the overcrowded Democratic field only helps the Republicans. Democratic leadership tried to get some California Democrats to drop out of the race, but they all apparently refused to do so.

This means the state could, in theory, elect a Republican governor for the first time in two decades. And other polls showed Hilton leading the field, including over Swalwell.

🚨NEW POLL: Steve Hilton leads the California governor’s race with 20%!

Republicans are uniting behind Steve because they know the truth: California isn’t working, and it’s time for real change. pic.twitter.com/NQzLMoAXrT

— Steve Hilton (@SteveHiltonx) March 6, 2026

California is a hot mess. Not only is it the next epicenter of massive Medicare fraud, Chevron is also warning Newsom’s energy policies could lead to the collapse of the world’s fourth-largest economy (something Newsom likes to boast about), and Newsom’s wife is in the spotlight for taking millions from her “gender stereotypes” charity.

“Not sure” seems like a great candidate.

— Gary Tapperson 🇺🇸✝️ (@tap_gary) March 11, 2026

Better than any of the Democrats, frankly.

Swallwell leading. How stupid can these people be? https://t.co/uNljIOYJbN

— Rob Schmitt (@SchmittNYC) March 11, 2026

Some voters never learn.

There’s also a risk that there will be no Republicans on the ballot if Hilton isn’t in the top two, and that may be why other Democrats are refusing to drop out at this point.

And even some Democrats aren’t keen on Swalwell.

This poll shows that Dems are closer to locking out Republicans than Republicans are to locking out Dems which is great but if Swalwell is the lone Democrat in the general I’m going to be immensely disappointed and leave the gov race blank like I did with the 2024 Senate race. https://t.co/vZS72fg8eh

— Alex_202 🟧 (@Alexz_101) March 11, 2026

The Hill even noted Swalwell’s lead, although that term is misleading.

Swalwell leads wide-open California governor’s race: poll https://t.co/URBA9HK03K

— The Hill (@thehill) March 11, 2026

And questions remain about whether or not Swalwell is even eligible to run, as he’s listed D.C. as his primary residence.

Swalwell, aka, #FangFang’s fart boy, is not a California resident.
Swalwell has long maintained his primary residence in Washington, D.C., despite representing large portions of California in Congress. Now he’s running for California governor, his apparent on-paper-only…

— PirateMike (@1americanguy) March 11, 2026

There’s a lawsuit challenging his eligibility.

Voters in California have a clear choice: they can continue the failed policies of Democrats like Gavin Newsom, or they can elect a Republican who can hopefully turn their state around.

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

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