The newest poll looking into the upcoming Texas elections show that the race is Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s to lose, with the Republican nominee currently sitting at 49 percent and two points ahead of his Democrat competition.
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New @RedEaglePatriot /SoCal Strategies TX Poll
Senate
🟥Ken Paxton: 49%
🟦James Talarico: 47%
Governor: Abbott 54-42
Generic Ballot: R 49-42
Trump Approval: 41-48 (-7)
Paxton Favorable (net): -11
Talarico Favorable (net): +5
n=800 LV 6/21 https://t.co/GbVWwMUP7f— SoCal Strategies (@SocalStrategies) June 22, 2026
TX Senate among John Cornyn primary voters
Ken Paxton: 71%
James Talarico: 25% https://t.co/ehcpLN1ICM— SoCal Strategies (@SocalStrategies) June 22, 2026
The poll further shows that James Talarico is only likely to receive support from one out of four of Sen. John Cornyn’s former supporters, despite the disaffected nature of Cornyn himself on the Republican party. A further look into those numbers shows that a nearly equivalent number of Cornyn voters who intend to vote for Talarico had supported Kamala Harris in 2024, indicating that they were Democrats who crossed over in Texas’ open primaries in an attempt to get Cornyn over the finish line.
Additional context:
Recalled 2024 vote among Cornyn primary voters
Trump: 79%
Harris: 20%
Governor Vote
Abbott: 79%
Hinojosa: 20% https://t.co/GxG6e76fP4— SoCal Strategies (@SocalStrategies) June 23, 2026
In terms of the gubernatorial race, campaign cash-rich Gov. Greg Abbott currently has a double digit advantage over Gina Hinojosa.
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With the benefit of growing spending from Republicans groups and the war chest of Abbott, Paxton seems primed to win the U.S. Senate seat in November.
Talarico has worked tirelessly to run from his extremely progressive positions as the midterms near. A recent podcast appearance by the Democrat gave him a platform to declare that he suddenly no longer supported sex change surgeries for minors, loved the oil and gas industry, considered himself to be a border hawk, and adored the Second Amendment.
Talarico’s growing scandals over his past relationships with legislative staffers have not helped his case either, as he likely began his relationship with his current girlfriend while she was working as his chief of staff. Talarico later used his influence to secure her a position in another legislative office.
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