New Baltimore County school report shows declining enrollment due to state exodus, in part

SPARKS, Md. (WBFF) — More Maryland families are choosing to leave the state, and new projections show that trend could have a major impact on local schools – costing district’s hundreds of millions of dollars.

Whitney and Matt Shlesinger are packing up decades of Maryland memories.

Whitney was born and raised in Maryland.

“I grew up in Annapolis,” Whitney said.

Her husband, Matt, has lived in Maryland for 25 years.

“I moved here after college,” explained Matt. “Baltimore City was a fun, nearby town.”

Their two children, who attend Baltimore County Public Schools, have never lived anywhere else.

Whitney and Matt Shlesinger are Baltimore County residents who next month, plan on leaving Maryland (WBFF)

But next month, the family is leaving Maryland – to start a new life in Georgia.

“You’re getting more for your taxpayer dollars (in Georgia),” remarked Matt. “The taxes alone, it’s a meaningful difference. The cost of living in Georgia is 10 to 15% cheaper.”

“Job stability,” added Whitney. “The quality of the school education. There really just stopped being a good reason to be here other than our friends.”

The Shlesingers are part of a growing movement where people are choosing to leave the state. According to the Maryland Chamber of Commerce, between 2020 and 2024, Maryland lost 120,435 residents to other states, the sixth most among the 50 states. And Baltimore County Public Schools is now recognizing the impact.

BCPS, every year, releases a “Students Count” report that predicts future enrollment trends.

This year’s report is estimating that student enrollment in BCPS will fall significantly in the coming years. The report projects between 2026 and 2035 enrollment will decline every year. Over ten school years, BCPS estimates it will have around 3,200 fewer students than it does now.

This is a stark difference from last year’s “Students Count” report, where the district estimated over 10 years that it would grow by about 2,000 students. That’s a difference of more than 5,000 students over a decade. Since funding is based on enrollment, the new estimates mean BCPS’s funding is estimated to decrease by hundreds of millions of dollars.

Over ten school years, BCPS estimates it will have around 3,200 fewer students than it does now (WBFF)

Enrollment projections are important for school systems. They are used to help plan for new school construction, building renovations and teacher recruitment. In a statement, BCPS confirmed to Project Baltimore, “Enrollment trends in BCPS have shifted from growth to decline,” which the district said is “certainly a concern” regarding funding. The projected decline in enrollment, BCPS explains, is due to, in part, lower birth rates, immigration policies, educational alternatives, such as homeschooling, and increases in outmigration.

“How hard of a decision was it to move?” Asked Project Baltimore’s Chris Papst to the Shlesingers.

“It was hard,” said Matt. “Very hard.”

“It was,” Whitney agreed.

The projected decline in enrollment, BCPS explains, is due to, in part, lower birth rates, immigration policies, educational alternatives, such as homeschooling, and increases in outmigration (WBFF)

Years of Maryland memories from the Shlesingers’ life will soon be heading south – likely never to come back.

“We have conversations with people all the time who are turning to me and say, ‘You’re lucky. We would follow you in a minute if there wasn’t this or if there wasn’t that. If I didn’t have kids in high school, I’d be there already,’” recalled Matt. “We felt like our kids are at an age right now, nine and six, almost seven. Those ages are important to them, and their friends are important to them. But they’ve got a long life to live, and our ability to provide a future for them is important too. And those benefits outweigh the costs.”

Follow Project Baltimore’s Chris Papst on X and Facebook. Send news tips to cjpapst@sbgtv.com